Turkish Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
2014, Vol 14, Num, 5 (Pages: 973-979)
Occurrence of Extreme Winds over the Black Sea During January Under Present and Near Future Climate
Liliana Velea 1 ,Roxana Bojariu 1 ,Roxana Cica 1
1 National Meteorological Administration, Sos. Bucuresti-Ploiesti 97, Bucharest, Romania
DOI :
10.4194/1303-2712-v14_4_17
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In the present study, the occurrence frequency of extreme wind speed over the Black Sea surface is analysed, aiming to
assess the differences between simulated and observed characteristics under present climate (2001-2009) and to investigate
the near term projected changes (2011-2040 vs. 1961-2000) of this indicator in the context of A1B scenario. We use
observational data provided by measurements at meteorological stations on Romanian coast and satellite QuickScat data, as
well as modelled data from numerical experiments with a high resolution regional climate model, taken from the results of the
EU project ENSEMBLES. Previous climatological analysis has indicated that January is prone to extreme wind episodes, so
we have focused our investigation on this month. The analysis performed for the entire Black Sea basin, as well as for two
costal sites, highlights Western and Northern areas which have a significant incidence of moderate and strong wind episodes
under present climate (2001-2009). In the period 2011-2040, under A1B climate change scenario, the decrease in the
frequency of moderate and high wind episodes takes place over almost entire basin, except for some Southern areas of the
Black Sea.
Keywords :
Surface wind speed, extreme thresholds, regional climate change